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Prediction markets for The Information
Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?
Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.76%chance
155268
OptionVotes
2880
347
It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light
Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
7.27%chance
192304
OptionVotes
1308
943
Will the Information Commissioner of Canada Resign in 2025?
Jul 18, 7:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
22.85%chance
91839
OptionVotes
1837
544
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years
Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM
46.43%chance
91725
OptionVotes
1074
931
Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?
Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53.5%chance
181694
OptionVotes
1059
917
Trump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.
Nov 8, 2:49 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM
41.32%chance
161305
OptionVotes
119
84
Will "The Information: OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 28, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.55%chance
21015
OptionVotes
1811
908
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.55%chance
15385
OptionVotes
1104
965
Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?
Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
89.19%chance
14354
OptionVotes
1329
932
Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves
Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM
15.37%chance
5197
OptionVotes
309
99
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028
Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.47%chance
5105
OptionVotes
145
115
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