Twitter News

Elon Musk’s X Settles $500 Million Lawsuit Over 2022 Twitter Layoffs Affecting 6,000 Ex-Employees; Kimberly-Clark and Delta Also Reach Multi-Million Settlements

1 year ago

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Backs Merge Labs to Challenge Elon Musk’s Neuralink, Twitter and Tesla

Startups

Business

Tech

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Backs Merge Labs to Challenge Elon Musk’s Neuralink, Twitter and Tesla

1 year ago

Musk Moves to Dismiss SEC Suit Over Twitter Stake Disclosure

Law

Stocks

Business

Musk Moves to Dismiss SEC Suit Over Twitter Stake Disclosure

1 year ago

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18734732

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q4 2024

2025

2026

Q3 2024

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.27%chance

22525311

OptionVotes

YES

3094

1992

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

618678

OptionVotes

YES

4007

1484

Will Manifold be acquired by Twitter by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.4%chance

557621

OptionVotes

YES

2346

1313

Will Twitter be valued at >100B?

Nov 5, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.77%chance

301918

OptionVotes

YES

1754

729

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

YES

999

822

Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?

Mar 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

191491

OptionVotes

YES

1023

838

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

201082

OptionVotes

YES

1546

799

Will Twitter join the S&P 500?

Dec 31, 9:20 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.34%chance

14515

OptionVotes

YES

1133

901

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.44%chance

12280

OptionVotes

YES

1019

977

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

@ManifoldMarkets has 20k twitter followers before the end of the year?

Oct 28, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.63%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

1013

995

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
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Musk Moves to Dismiss SEC Suit Over Twitter Stake Disclosure
Authors
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1 year ago
Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
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Elon Musk’s X Settles $500 Million Lawsuit Over 2022 Twitter Layoffs Affecting 6,000 Ex-Employees; Kimberly-Clark and Delta Also Reach Multi-Million Settlements
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Aug 19, 2025
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Backs Merge Labs to Challenge Elon Musk’s Neuralink, Twitter and Tesla
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11
1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Twitter

Prediction markets for Twitter

Prediction markets for Twitter

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Will Manifold be acquired by Twitter by end of 2030?

Will Twitter be valued at >100B?

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Will Twitter join the S&P 500?

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

@ManifoldMarkets has 20k twitter followers before the end of the year?

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