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Prediction markets for Universal
Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?
Sep 2, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.89%chance
9475615
OptionVotes
3590
1751
Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
62.01%chance
35930682
OptionVotes
2387
2065
OptionProbability
52
50
45
43
35
34
34
34
28
27
22
19
15
14
9
8
5
OptionVotes
1137
798
Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?
Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.57%chance
847362
OptionVotes
1221
593
Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?
Mar 4, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
36.36%chance
535823
OptionVotes
1021
973
OptionProbability
75
8
7
7
3
OptionVotes
1279
961
Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?
Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
60.77%chance
403269
OptionVotes
1440
398
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.35%chance
422502
OptionVotes
1902
526
Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2028?
Jan 28, 7:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
28.07%chance
161276
OptionVotes
1687
730
OptionProbability
29
28
13
7
7
5
4
3
2
1
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