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Prediction markets for University of Oxford
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%chance
8138437
OptionVotes
27819
3071
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 12, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.88%chance
281650
OptionVotes
1445
946
OptionProbability
86
4
4
4
4
What university will generate the highest number of new Nobel Laureate faculty between 2023 and 2033?
Jan 10, 7:06 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM
5814
OptionProbability
48
48
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
Would Oxbridge win University Challenge without college-level entries?
Dec 18, 9:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
57.65%chance
8296
OptionVotes
109
69
When the Chinese K visa is available, would I be able to live and work in China on it right out of the box?
Sep 24, 3:09 PMSep 24, 3:09 PM
71.88%chance
396
OptionVotes
160
63
OptionVotes
510
491