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upGrad News

    Prediction markets for upGrad

    OptionProbability

    Directly help with LessOnline and/or Manifest

    Help Ray with Feedbackloop Rationality

    Directly help with the LessWrong Community Weekend

    Actively talk to as many organizers as possible

    Publish the rest of Running A Basic ____ sequence, going up to 1k+ events

    Build a better Meetup Crossposter

    Run a Meetup Exchange Program

    Run an essayist writing group

    Make the refined, digital version of Meetup In A Box

    Run East Coast Rationalist Megameetup

    Youtube Guide To ACX

    Tiktok Guide To The Sequences

    Run Vermont/Massachusetts Summer Solstice

    Run LessWrong Community Census 2025

    Get a Rationality Club going in a high school

    Publish the rest of Conflict Resolution sequence

    Run the ACX Meetup Reimbursement program

    Run a paid workshop or dojo (Think CFAR workshop or Trading Bootcamp)

    Fix and upgrade LessWrong's /Community page

    Find a nice high paid normal job and fund someone else doing cool rationality meetup stuff

    Put together an ACX equivalent to the EA Handbook

    Create an ACX Jobs Board

    Help get a Boston version of Fractal off the ground

    Run Boston Solstice

    Publish Anatomy of Community sequence

    Set up a formal 501c3 (or something like that)

    Handle incoming complaints about local meetups

    Publish a guide to running a Sky-Style Summer Solstice

    Backend ACX Everywhere (Fall and Spring)

    Get Calibration Trivia to be run in multiple pubs, unaffiliated with the rationalist community

    Publish some really good fanfic

    Publish a beautiful, well edited Highlights From The Codex in physical form

    HPMOR 10-year anniversary

    Make the refined, physical version of Meetup In A Box

    34

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    10

    8

    8

    8

    United nations - will it stand by 2040?

    Jun 25, 11:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    224958

    OptionProbability

    Remains without any contender organization

    Remains existing, but there is/are other organization thay claim the same missions, and have membership of at least 60% of the countries that represent at least 60% of total human population, present on all continents

    It still exists, but members are less than 60% of the recognized countries or contain less than 60% of world population, and there are no contender organizations that meet these criteria

    Remains, and Its UPGRADED, covering 99% of habitable earth and maintaining high conflict resolution capabilities and in possession of nuclear weapons

    Disbanded and replaced with another organization (the League of Nations trajectory) that achives worldwide acceptance

    Disbanded, and there is no alternate organization which achieves global concensus (present on all continents, at least 60% of recognized countries are members, and they represent 60% of human population)

    70

    16

    15

    7

    5

    5

    Will Luffy get another devil fruit upgrade after gear 5?

    Apr 24, 8:57 AMDec 20, 10:59 PM
    62.55%chance
    272231

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1073

    933

    How will Ussop Upgrade?

    Mar 3, 2:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    22806

    OptionProbability

    New Weapon

    Advanced Observation Haki/Future Sight

    Devil Fruit (On him or his weapon)

    Conqueror's Haki

    Better Pop Greens

    98

    92

    85

    53

    22

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    285

    35

    OptionProbability

    Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

    Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

    Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

    Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

    The Odyssean Institute

    Mechanical Library

    Educate the public about high impact causes

    Science prediction markets for replicability

    Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

    Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

    Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

    LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

    Building software to demystify land use regulations

    Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

    Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

    Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

    MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

    Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

    H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

    Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

    Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

    Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

    Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

    Upgrade YIMBY messaging

    Publish a book on Egan education for parents

    Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

    Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

    Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

    Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

    Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

    Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

    Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

    Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

    Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

    Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

    Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

    Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

    Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

    An online science platform

    Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

    Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

    News through prediction markets

    A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

    Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

    Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

    Replicate social science research

    Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers

    Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change

    75

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    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    105

    105

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