Ways and Means News

GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

1 year ago

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.54%chance

15987897

OptionVotes

YES

4274

2558

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1758496

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.02%chance

12354954

OptionVotes

YES

1485

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17445547

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

53.18%chance

3422942

OptionVotes

YES

1292

258

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

2389

1500

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

156353

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

2783

1747

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

1505

892

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.32%chance

352627

OptionVotes

YES

1049

775

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?

May 5, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.2%chance

11747

OptionVotes

YES

550

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Ways and Means

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Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?

Latest stories

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