Ways and Means News

GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

6 months ago

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

YES

4435

2419

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

1703

1135

Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?

May 24, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

16.95%chance

28335228

OptionVotes

YES

3402

2097

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1925293

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

It will have four playable characters on release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

YES

1074

582

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5%chance

918354

OptionVotes

YES

2482

1495

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

73.07%chance

96024

OptionVotes

YES

10393

9851

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

2783

1747

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

1505

892

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.77%chance

342620

OptionVotes

YES

1042

789

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

82131

OptionProbability

Feb 2026

Jan 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

175

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Politics
GOP Lawmakers Tour Factories to Tout Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
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6 months ago

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Prediction markets for Ways and Means

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram