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Prediction markets for Ways and Means
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
52.54%chance
15987897
OptionVotes
4274
2558
OptionProbability
83
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
76.02%chance
12354954
OptionVotes
1485
80
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
17445547
OptionVotes
1585
1297
Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?
Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM
53.18%chance
3422942
OptionVotes
1292
258
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
5.2%chance
928379
OptionVotes
2389
1500
Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?
Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
156353
OptionProbability
29
6
Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?
Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
32.02%chance
695627
OptionVotes
2783
1747
OptionVotes
1505
892
Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040
Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.32%chance
352627
OptionVotes
1049
775
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.94%chance
372146
OptionVotes
1014
884
Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?
May 5, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.2%chance
11747
OptionVotes
550
18
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