OptionProbability
Haiku gets it's 5 version
Opus 5.1 or higher update before Q4
Claude introduces long-term memory or persistent workspace features
Fable 5.1+ Publically available before IPO
Antropics IPO happens before Dec '26
Anthropic launches a new enterprise-focused data analysis tool
Anthropic partners with a major cloud provider for exclusive compute capacity
IPO Valuation: $2 trillion+
Anthropic acquires a specialized AI research startup
Fable retires before EOY
Claude monthly plan pricing is reduced by more than 20%
Antropics IPO happens before Nov '26
Anthropic announces an open-weights model release
100
84
75
69
60
49
43
26
10
5
3
2
Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods
Well-known researcher attempts to reproduce global workspace results on open-weight models
Well-known researcher uses Anthropic’s methods on open-weight models to find novel evidence of a global workspace
Well-known researcher casts public doubt on Anthropic’s claims, methods, or results
Paper providing independent evidence of global workspace passes peer review in any major conference
70
59
54
52
47
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1149
427
263
38
176
85
125
45
1000
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