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Prediction markets for Cross
If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
Mar 9, 10:33 PMOct 31, 6:59 AM
9.5%chance
2126162
OptionVotes
2938
518
When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?
Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
3722802
OptionProbability
38
27
18
8
7
1
Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
May 5, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85.2%chance
223022
OptionVotes
1667
819
Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?
Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
10.2%chance
92131
OptionVotes
2967
337
Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?
Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.46%chance
101932
OptionVotes
1664
601
OptionVotes
996
964
Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
May 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.27%chance
131352
OptionVotes
1983
504
Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030
Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.39%chance
201032
OptionVotes
1496
812
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
28.65%chance
18812
OptionVotes
1010
919
Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?
Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
32.87%chance
16543
OptionVotes
1006
969
OptionVotes
1406
711
Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
22.1%chance
15338
OptionVotes
1079
956
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