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Prediction markets for Crowley
OptionVotes
423
24
OptionVotes
539
19
OptionVotes
389
26
Was the Irkutsk plague produced by gain-of-function research?
Oct 6, 12:49 PMOct 1, 12:48 PM
18.26%chance
12287
OptionVotes
757
537
OptionVotes
248
40
Will a substantial ancient manuscript copy of Pytheas of Massalia’s On the Ocean be discovered before 2050?
Aug 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.82%chance
9216
OptionVotes
165
61
OptionProbability
17
12
11
8
8
7
7
7
5
5
5
5
3
1
1
Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?
Jun 28, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
1116
OptionVotes
100
100
Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?
May 19, 1:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.18%chance
285
OptionVotes
106
95
Will 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?
Aug 24, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.94%chance
420
OptionVotes
102
98
OptionVotes
115
87
Will ASI be more aligned with the 1% than the 99% in 2040?
Oct 11, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.75%chance
212
OptionVotes
110
91
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