Deco News

Barcelona Gives 18-Year-Old Yamal No. 10 Shirt, Extends Contract to 2031

17 days ago

Yamal Brace Lifts Barcelona 3–2 Ahead at Half in Seoul Friendly

Korea

Soccer

Sports

Yamal Brace Lifts Barcelona 3–2 Ahead at Half in Seoul Friendly

2 days ago

Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?

Sep 8, 8:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.79%chance

5011947

OptionVotes

YES

7406

135

Will the International Space Station be decommissioned by the end of 2025?

Nov 4, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

305347

OptionVotes

YES

5431

873

Will Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2025?

Jan 3, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.86%chance

153734

OptionVotes

YES

3714

406

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

81.56%chance

261632

OptionVotes

YES

1517

827

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.63%chance

251144

OptionVotes

YES

1142

764

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

1040

971

In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?

May 2, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.78%chance

8113

OptionVotes

YES

211

172

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will Super Smash Bros Melee be 100% decompiled by the end of 2026?

Jul 22, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.87%chance

349

OptionVotes

YES

133

Exit valuation of Decoda Health (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed and still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?

Apr 18, 11:10 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM

24.97%chance

429

OptionVotes

YES

161

132

Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 30, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Yamal Brace Lifts Barcelona 3–2 Ahead at Half in Seoul Friendly
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2 days ago
Jul 16, 2025
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17 days ago

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Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?

Will the International Space Station be decommissioned by the end of 2025?

Will Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2025?

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Super Smash Bros Melee be 100% decompiled by the end of 2026?

Exit valuation of Decoda Health (YC S23)?

Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed *and* still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?

Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed and still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?