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Prediction markets for Deco
OptionVotes
1549
646
Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?
Jan 21, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.37%chance
375892
OptionVotes
1213
890
Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?
Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM
72.51%chance
301827
OptionVotes
1052
963
OptionVotes
2468
405
Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?
Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
88.85%chance
51400
OptionVotes
2363
692
Private space agency buys ISS before being decommissioned
Dec 30, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.81%chance
11838
OptionVotes
1103
387
OptionVotes
1040
971
Is David Wallace wrong about decoherence and branching in quantum physics?
Jul 14, 7:47 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM
51.4%chance
7306
OptionVotes
103
97
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed *and* still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050?
Apr 18, 11:10 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM
24.97%chance
429
OptionVotes
161
132
Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 30, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
224
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionProbability
50
50
50
34
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