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Hugo Chávez News

    Prediction markets for Hugo Chávez

    OptionProbability

    Bo Brahson as Princess Zelda

    Benjamin Evan Ainsworth as Link

    Dichen Lachman as Impa

    Masi Oka as Tingle

    [This market will have the actor for Ganondorf submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Kristen Schaal as Navi

    [This market will have the actor for Link submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Zelda Williams as Great Fairy

    Finn Wolfhard as Skull Kid

    Emily Kuroda as Impa

    Sacha Baron Cohen as Tingle

    Jack Black as Morshu

    Tilda Swinton as Impa

    Chris Pratt as Groose

    [This market will have the actor for Zelda submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Idris Elba as Ganondorf

    Dave Bautista as Ganondorf

    Henry Cavill as Ganondorf

    Tilda Swinton as Ganandorf

    Timothée Chalamet as Link

    Emma Watson as Zelda

    Justice Smith as Link

    Jacob Tremblay as Link

    Tom Holland as Link

    Hunter Schafer as Zelda

    Thomasin McKenzie as Zelda

    Thomas Brodie-Sangster as Link

    Hugo Weaving as Ganondorf

    Mackenyu as Link

    Sophia Lillis as Zelda

    F1nn5ter as Link

    Saoirse Ronan as Zelda

    99

    99

    89

    22

    17

    16

    13

    13

    12

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    5

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1163

    546

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1110

    931

    Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?

    Jan 18, 12:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    14.43%chance
    17553

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1176

    950

    Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?

    Oct 20, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
    9.08%chance
    12528

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    408

    90

    Which novel will win a Hugo award in 2026?

    Apr 21, 11:23 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM
    6327

    OptionProbability

    The Incandescent - Emily Tesh

    Death of the Author - Nnedi Okorafor

    A Drop of Corruption - Robert Jackson Bennett

    The Everlasting - Alix E. Harrow

    Shroud - Adrian Tchaikovsky

    The Raven Scholar - Antonia Hodgson

    24

    22

    19

    15

    10

    10

    Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

    Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM
    2319

    OptionProbability

    “Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)

    “10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)

    “In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)

    “Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)

    “Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

    “Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)

    28

    18

    17

    15

    12

    10

    Which novelette will win a Hugo award in 2026?

    Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM
    1307

    OptionProbability

    “The Millay Illusion” - Sarah Pinsker (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 67)

    “Rapport: Friendship, Solidarity, Communion, Empathy” - Martha Wells (Reactor, July 10, 2025)

    “Kaiju Agonistes” - Scott Lynch (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

    “Never Eaten Vegetables” - H.H. Pak (Clarkesworld, Issue 220)

    “The Girl That My Mother Is Leaving Me For” - Cameron Reed (Reactor, April 2, 2025)

    “When He Calls Your Name” - Catherynne M. Valente (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 65)

    28

    22

    14

    14

    11

    11

    Which novella will win a Hugo award in 2026?

    Apr 21, 11:24 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM
    3230

    OptionProbability

    The River Has Roots - Amal El-Mohtar

    What Stalks the Deep - T. Kingfisher

    Automatic Noodle - Annalee Newitz

    The Summer War - Naomi Novik

    Cinder House - Freya Marske

    Murder by Memory - Olivia Waite

    43

    20

    10

    10

    9

    9

    OptionProbability

    I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

    I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

    Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

    Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

    Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

    Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

    Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

    Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

    Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

    Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

    Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

    Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

    Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

    Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

    Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

    Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

    Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

    Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

    Will we have 20+ this year?

    Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

    Will we meet in the library at least once?

    Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

    Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which series will win a Hugo award in 2026?

    Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM
    171

    OptionProbability

    The Chronicles of Osreth - Katherine Addison

    Old Man's War - John Scalzi

    White Space - Elizabeth Bear

    The Craft Wars - Max Gladstone

    October Daye - Seanan McGuire

    Emily Wilde - Heather Fawcett

    26

    24

    16

    13

    12

    9

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