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Prediction markets for Hugo Chávez
Who will be cast in the live-action Legend of Zelda movie, as what role?
Nov 8, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5221497
OptionProbability
99
99
89
22
17
16
13
13
12
9
9
9
8
7
5
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
Jan 19, 7:23 PMJan 19, 7:18 PM
34.74%chance
124627
OptionVotes
1163
546
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
Feb 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.81%chance
15571
OptionVotes
1110
931
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
Jan 18, 12:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.43%chance
17553
OptionVotes
1176
950
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
Oct 20, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
9.08%chance
12528
OptionVotes
408
90
OptionProbability
24
22
19
15
10
10
OptionProbability
28
18
17
15
12
10
OptionProbability
28
22
14
14
11
11
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
OptionProbability
43
20
10
10
9
9
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
26
24
16
13
12
9
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