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Prediction markets for Ilya
Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?
Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
82.24%chance
677491
OptionVotes
2152
465
OptionProbability
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will "Ilya Sutskever Deposition Transcript" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Mar 12, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.9%chance
91270
OptionVotes
1736
914
OptionVotes
1933
887
OptionProbability
53
52
47
38
35
31
30
20
19
12
Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?
Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
15.25%chance
15844
OptionVotes
236
42
Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
19.93%chance
14535
OptionVotes
1329
744
Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy back working together by mid 2029
Oct 30, 11:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
34.45%chance
570
OptionVotes
138
72
OptionVotes
130
77
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionVotes
80
62


