OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Imane Khelif is intersex
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The CIA killed JFK
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The NFL is rigged
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Princess Diana was assassinated
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
90
85
85
82
80
77
76
75
74
71
70
69
65
52
52
51
50
48
46
42
42
42
41
41
39
39
38
37
37
36
35
35
32
31
31
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
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27
26
26
25
25
25
24
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11
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9
9
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9
9
9
9
9
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8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
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7
7
7
6
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
Xi Jinping
Vladimir Putin
Elon Musk
Zohran Mamdani
Sam Altman
Gavin Newsom
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
Gen Z
Jeffrey Epstein
Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)
Marco Rubio
Benjamin Netanyahu
AOC
Jerome Powell
Sydney Sweeney
Demis Hassabis
Larry Ellison
Jensen Huang
Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )
Nicholas Maduro
Mark Zuckerberg
Dario Amodei
Lisa Su
Fei-Fei Li
Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)
Millenials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Scott Bessent
Sundar Pichai
Narendra Modi
Ursula von der Leyen
Jasmine Crockett
Graham Platner
Kevin Hassett
Gen Alpha
Claudia Sheinbaum
Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)
Ahmed al-Sharaa
66
11
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1527
766
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
18
17
11
7
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
The UK did Nordstream
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
Trump is a Russian agent
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Chemtrails
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
The moon landing was faked
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
30
30
11
10
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
3
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2710
898
OptionVotes
YES
NO
642
100
OptionProbability
John Bolton
Letitia James
Fani Willis
Any sitting Democratic elected official
Lisa Cook
Adam Schiff
Jack Smith
Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case
Tim Walz
Jerome Powell
George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership
Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden
Liz Cheney
Hunter Biden
Anyone in the Obama family
100
100
80
68
63
51
50
50
50
50
45
40
34
20
20
OptionVotes
YES
NO
927
390
OptionVotes
YES
NO
439
23
OptionProbability
criminal activity
Something to do with Donald Trump specifically
A (alleged) cover up of some kind
Something to do with Jeffrey Epstein
Something to do with Tulsi Gabbard
32
26
8
8
8
OptionVotes
YES
NO
131
77



