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Top stories

Trump Fires IRS Chief Billy Long, Names Treasury’s Bessent Acting Commissioner

US Gov Appointments

Trump Fires IRS Chief Billy Long, Names Treasury’s Bessent Acting Commissioner

Authors

64

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Long

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3521351

Will we have cheap long-distance jet packs by 2030?🔥

Jul 18, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.13%chance

523832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

937

How Long will King Charles reign?

May 7, 7:10 AMMay 7, 8:59 PM

16.52%chance

333367

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1629

773

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.98%chance

351217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

912

Will Dick Cheney live long enough to see Monkey D. Luffy find the One Piece?

Nov 30, 3:33 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM

38.74%chance

31836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2031

1975

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.2%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

961

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

979

Sudden jump in AI long-horizon capabilities (1-4 hr version)

Aug 19, 5:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.6%chance

6484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Is human civilization compatible with computers in the long term?

Mar 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.81%chance

12263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

978

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 8, 2025
Aug 8, 2025
US Gov Appointments
Politics
Trump Fires IRS Chief Billy Long, Names Treasury’s Bessent Acting Commissioner
Authors
64
4 days ago

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