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Prediction markets for Moraes
Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30%chance
185405
OptionVotes
10000
10000
Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
Aug 16, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20%chance
192337
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?
Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
50.66%chance
351469
OptionVotes
997
978
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?
Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
70.45%chance
381457
OptionVotes
1231
871
Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?
Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33.93%chance
5550
OptionVotes
1395
717
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026?
Mar 12, 12:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.84%chance
12532
OptionVotes
321
31
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing
Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
55.22%chance
22530
OptionVotes
1069
931
OptionProbability
99
59
37
36
34
34
34
34
34
21
12
Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?
Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
74.67%chance
25505
OptionVotes
1154
929
Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?
Jul 1, 5:47 AMJun 30, 4:00 PM
52.06%chance
7204
OptionVotes
1042
960
OptionProbability
19
17
12
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
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