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Trump Draws Fire After Alaska Summit With Putin Produces No Ukraine Cease-Fire

Russia

War

US Foreign Policy

Trump Draws Fire After Alaska Summit With Putin Produces No Ukraine Cease-Fire

1 year ago

Culture

Netflix Sets Oct. 3 Debut for Ryan Murphy’s ‘Monster: The Ed Gein Story’

1 year ago

Boston

Tech

United States

Boston Councilors Seek Probe After 30-Minute Police Radio Failure

1 year ago

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

19132267829

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Other

Gavin Newsom

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Raphael Warnock

Michelle Obama

Bernie Sanders

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Hunter Biden

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Jon Stewart

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Ruben Gallego

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

Who will be elected president in 2028?

Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 7, 12:00 AM

21291923855

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

J.D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Donald Trump

Raphael Warnock

Tucker Carlson

Ro Khanna

Chris Van Hollen

Joe Rogan

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Ted Cruz

Amy Klobuchar

Kanye West

Hunter Biden

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Bernie Sanders

Greg Abbott

Nikki Haley

No 2028 Election

Stacey Abrams

Glenn Youngkin

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Tim Scott

Mitch Landrieu

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ruben Gallego

Katie Porter

Joe Biden

Ration L. Ussy

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Tim Walz

RFK Jr.

Tetraspace

Lina Khan

Shawn Fain

Donald Trump Jr

Elon Musk

Ritchie Torres

Taylor Swift

Barack Obama

Chris Murphy

Stephen A. Smith

Mickey Mouse

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Laura Loomer

Abigail Spanberger

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Tulsi Gabbard

Al Gore

Kathy Hochul

[deleted]

Josh Hawley

Rahm Emmanuel

Ezra Klein

Tim Kaine

invalid

Brian Kemp

David McCormick

Andrew Yang

Anna Paulina Luna

Amaryllis Fox

AI Overlord

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Mike Johnson

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Jamie Dimon

Abrego Garcia

Andrew Cuomo

Invalid

invalid

Deval Patrick

Jasmine Crockett

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Obama

Sheldon Whitehouse

Robert Prevost

Harambe

Josh Stein

Jeff Jackson

Rand Paul

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elissa Slotkin

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

513282243

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Other

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

James Talarico

JB Pritzker

Gretchen Whitmer

Michelle Obama

Rahm Emanuel

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

Wes Moore

Chris Van Hollen

Ro Khanna

Andrew Yang

Bernie Sanders

John Stewart

Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

Abdul El-Sayed

Colin Allred

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Tim Walz

Amy Klobuchar

Connor Duffy

[Invalid - Duplicate]

Yishan Wong

Adolf Hitler

Mark Cuban

Andrew Cuomo

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Ritchie Torres

Elissa Slotkin

Jill Biden

Invalid

Jasmine Crockett

Cory Booker

Invalid

Ruben Gallego

Hakeem Jeffries

Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

Zohran Mamdani

Jacob Frey

Noam Chomsky

Mikie Sherrill

Taylor Swift

Liz Cheney

Kirsten Gillibrand

Ezra Klein

Invalid

Josh Green

Chris Murphy

Jamie Dimon

George Washington

Paris Hilton

Donald Trump

George Clooney

Bob brooks

Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 3rd District?

Oct 6, 6:07 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

29238855

OptionProbability

Democratic Party — Raymond Smith Jr.

Republican Party — Greg Murphy

Another party or independent

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

387136550

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Josh Hawley

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Tucker Carlson

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Marco Rubio

J. B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

James Talarico

Ron DeSantis

Elise Stefanik

Wes Moore

Stephen Miller

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Jeff Jackson

Donald Trump Jr.

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Sam Altman

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Cory Booker

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Mark Cuban

Erika Kirk

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Ezra Klein

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Kevin Stitt

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

Next James Bond movie (#26) [Mega Independent] / Prop bets:

Nov 23, 9:13 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

15159454

OptionProbability

Gunplay

On screen fatalities

Bond will be a man

Bond drives a car

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

London will appear on screen

World capital other than London appears on screen

Car chase scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Bond drinks a martini

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Blue-eyed Bond

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Bond flys an aircraft

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Skydiving

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

Bond commits arson

Bond receives a gunshot wound

Oral sex

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

The title will refer to life and/or death

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond plays poker

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Wilhelm scream

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond is LQBTQ+

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

Jetpack

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Bond rides an animal

Nazis (neo- counts)

An EMP device plays a central role.

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Orgy

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

Mexico is shown on screen

Cryptocurrency is referenced

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

A hamburger appears on screen

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Bond goes to space

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Pirates

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Bond plays Russian roulette

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Bond uses chopsticks

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

It will be directed by a woman

Bond dies

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

The fourth wall is broken

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Bond is vegan

Released in 2026

Bond hits the griddy

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

12228979

OptionProbability

J.B. Pritzker

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Gretchen Whitmer

Amy Klobuchar

Chris Murphy

Raphael Warnock

Deval Patrick

Gina Raimondo

J. B. Pritzker

Steve Bullock

Mark Kelly

Andy Beshear

Ro Khanna

Maura Healey

Chris Coons

Jeff Jackson

Catherine Cortez Masto

Katie Hobbs

Tim Walz

Tina Kotek

Abigail Spanberger

Michael Bennet

Julián Castro

Beto O'Rourke

Bill de Blasio

Jay Inslee

Jared Polis

Roy Cooper

Martin O'Malley

Cornel West

Tom Steyer

Wayne Messam

Kirsten Gillibrand

Mitch Landrieu

Tammy Duckworth

Tammy Baldwin

Tim Kaine

Marianne Williamson

Eric Swalwell

Wes Moore

John Fetterman

Dean Phillips

Michelle Obama

Laphonza Butler

Tulsi Gabbard

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II

Next James Bond? (Including actually likely answers)

Jun 27, 11:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4220368

OptionProbability

Callum Turner

Jack Lowden

Josh O‘Connor

Jack Barton

Jack O Connell

Other

Nicholas Hoult

Aaron Taylor-Johnson

Henry Cavill

Theo James

Aaron Pierre

Harris Dickinson

James Norton

Sam C. Wilson

Scott Rose-Marsh

Tom Hardy

Cillian Murphy

Michael Fassbender

Tom Hiddleston

Jacob Elordi

Tom Holland

Matthew Lewis

Louis Partridge

Tom francis

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Nov 5, 8:17 PMJan 1, 3:00 PM

82235

OptionProbability

Ro Khanna

Andy Beshear

Rahm Emanuel

Gavin Newsom

Wes Moore

Josh Shapiro

Cory Booker

Mark Kelly

Chris Van Hollen

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Raphael Warnock

Mitch Landrieu

Kamala Harris

Elissa Slotkin

Ruben Gallego

Gretchen Whitmer

Jared Polis

Chris Murphy

Phil Murphy

Dean Phillips

Shawn Fain

Mikie Sherrill

Roy Cooper

Abigail Spanberger

James Talarico

Mark Cuban

Stephen A. Smith

John Fetterman

Hunter Biden

🎬Who will win an Oscar before the end of their career? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 10, 7:14 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

241383

OptionProbability

Robert Downey Jr

Cillian Murphy

Ryan Coogler

Timothee Chalamet

Ralph Fiennes

Michelle Williams

Bradley Cooper

Willem Dafoe

Amy Adams

Tom Cruise

Edward Norton

Zendaya

Glenn Close

Michelle Pfeiffer

Naomi Watts

Michael Keaton

Steve Buscemi

Paul Giamatti

Matt Damon

Laura Linney

Mark Ruffalo

Colin Farrell

Sarah Silverman

Johnny Depp

John Malkovich

Jim Carrey

Woody Harrelson

Annette Bening

Samuel L Jackson

Sigourney Weaver

Bill Murray

Peter O'Toole

100

Who will play Voldemort in the new Harry Potter?

Jul 17, 12:40 PMDec 16, 1:37 PM

17598

OptionProbability

Paul Bettany

Other

Cillian Murphy

Ralph Fiennes

Matt Smith

Tom Hiddleston

Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 5, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.28%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

1082

615

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