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Prediction markets for Peter Major
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
Nov 13, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.59%chance
574197
OptionVotes
1732
238
Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?
Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
79.95%chance
73854
OptionVotes
1059
972
Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?
Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
6.06%chance
233123
OptionVotes
3255
688
Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?
Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
38.04%chance
201201
OptionVotes
1135
686
If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?
Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.75%chance
22858
OptionVotes
1120
906
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
22.51%chance
17593
OptionVotes
1187
857
If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?
Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.46%chance
13458
OptionVotes
520
178
OptionVotes
340
29
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
14.44%chance
10392
OptionVotes
368
157
Will Cemu emulator have an Android version by the end of 2025?
Aug 2, 9:23 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
89.94%chance
4224
OptionVotes
299
33
Will Peter Thiel become a featured NPC in a major AAA game title (like GTA 6) by 2027?
May 13, 10:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
35.7%chance
220
OptionVotes
110
75
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