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Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
18.7%chance
74181000
OptionVotes
129217
23310
OptionVotes
212
47
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Dec 15, 7:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
201560
OptionProbability
41
38
8
5
4
3
OptionProbability
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
1
A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029
Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
70.48%chance
4545
OptionVotes
1545
647
OptionVotes
1459
987
Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
22.58%chance
9310
OptionVotes
640
431
OptionVotes
126
80
OptionProbability
78
0
0
0
Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034
Sep 11, 4:05 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
54.23%chance
10175
OptionVotes
212
147
Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?
Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM
15.38%chance
3145
OptionVotes
235
43
Will Elissa Slotkin or Tammy Baldwin end up voting for a Trump nominee that >=3 Republican senators vote against?
Nov 8, 1:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.96%chance
125
OptionVotes
625
576