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Prediction markets for Vo
What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
24.58%chance
4965814
OptionVotes
972
970
OptionProbability
52
27
10
7
2
1
1
1
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Nov 11, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.42%chance
15222977
OptionVotes
1346
1285
Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?
Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM
24.44%chance
14217223
OptionVotes
2734
1516
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?
Jan 16, 5:53 PMNov 30, 4:59 AM
19.43%chance
16414214
OptionVotes
2060
123
OptionVotes
1244
804
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
65.8%chance
464001
OptionVotes
1386
672
Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?
Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM
13.59%chance
143292
OptionVotes
2522
397
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
141602
OptionVotes
10441
9624
Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?
Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
23.1%chance
551530
OptionVotes
1668
1420
If Greenland holds an independence referendum in 2025, will it vote for independence?
Jan 27, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30%chance
14965
OptionVotes
1528
655
Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?
Oct 11, 6:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
22.37%chance
12826
OptionVotes
997
988