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von der Leyen News

    Prediction markets for von der Leyen

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    288210499

    OptionProbability

    Zohran Mamdani

    Other

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Mark Carney

    James Talarico

    Jon Ossoff

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Dario Amodei

    Xi Jinping

    Elon Musk

    Sam Altman

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    AOC

    Marco Rubio

    Vladimir Putin

    Gavin Newsom

    Jerome Powell

    Sydney Sweeney

    Demis Hassabis

    Larry Ellison

    Jensen Huang

    Gen Z

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    Nicholas Maduro

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

    Lisa Su

    Fei-Fei Li

    Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

    Millenials

    Gen X

    Baby Boomers

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Scott Bessent

    Sundar Pichai

    Narendra Modi

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Jasmine Crockett

    Graham Platner

    Kevin Hassett

    Gen Alpha

    Claudia Sheinbaum

    Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

    Ahmed al-Sharaa

    Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

    Bad Bunny

    Kevin Warsh

    Pete Hegseth

    27

    19

    11

    10

    9

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Members of the Board of Peace?

    Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:01 PM
    3822451

    OptionProbability

    Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

    Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

    Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Javier Milei (Argentine President)

    Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

    Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

    Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

    Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

    Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

    Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

    Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

    Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

    Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

    Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

    Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

    Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

    Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

    United Kingdom

    Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

    Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

    Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

    Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

    Emmanuel Macron (French President)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    20

    15

    15

    15

    10

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    Next German president

    Feb 18, 10:33 AMFeb 13, 11:59 PM
    186426

    OptionProbability

    Ilse Aigner

    Karin Prien

    Ines Claus

    Other

    Angela Merkel

    Julia Klöckner

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

    Hape Kerkeling

    Boris Rhein

    90

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Hendrik Wüst

    Other

    Johann Wadephul

    Markus Söder

    Thorsten Frei

    Alexander Dobrindt

    Daniel Günther

    Boris Rhein

    Nina Warken

    Ursula von der Leyen

    30

    24

    16

    13

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Propose a 90% emission-reduction target for 2040 in a European Climate Law

    Propose a European AI Research Council (CERN for AI)

    Set up a President's Youth Advisory Board with young people from all Member States

    Expand the Rule of Law Report to include a Single Market dimension and accession countries

    Propose a new European Biotech Act

    Create a pan-European investment platform for affordable and sustainable housing with the European Investment Bank

    By the end of the mandate, energy prices will on average be lower (inflation-adjusted)

    More than double Europol's staff over time

    The next long-term budget will include a regime of conditionality for the Rule of Law

    Triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000

    Respond to all of Parliament's Article 225 resolutions with legislative proposals

    Implement a right to disconnect

    Hold European Citizens' Panels every year

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    83

    57

    54

    53

    50

    45

    41

    41

    Ukraine joins EU before 2029?

    Dec 23, 11:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    9.18%chance
    14719

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    314

    32

    OptionProbability

    Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)

    Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)

    Forza Italia

    League (Lega)

    Noi Moderati

    Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)

    Action - Italia Viva (Azione/Italia Viva)

    Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS)

    Più Europa

    Free and Equal (Liberi e Uguali)

    76

    63

    59

    54

    41

    34

    34

    30

    17

    10

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