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Prediction markets for Will
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.03%chance
38629966000
OptionVotes
10838
10531
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
93.02%chance
8657703802
OptionVotes
18686
8824
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.8%chance
24021729741
OptionVotes
9021
2682
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
56.67%chance
18391290856
OptionVotes
4963
3791
Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?
Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.28%chance
268530402
OptionVotes
24349
6056
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54%chance
602394096
OptionVotes
16776
7995
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
27.02%chance
223346268
OptionVotes
136861
82265
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
31.05%chance
165276698
OptionVotes
148701
67433
OptionVotes
102453
88988
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
50%chance
217172957
OptionVotes
1300
940
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.35%chance
3947145
OptionVotes
118404
88423
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.8%chance
5626924
OptionVotes
114667
87209
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