The National Hurricane Center on Thursday lifted the chance that a low-pressure area off the U.S. Southeast coast will develop into a tropical depression or weak storm to 60 %, up from 20 % earlier in the week. The disturbance is expected to consolidate along a stalled frontal boundary late this weekend and then drift northward toward the Carolinas. Even if the system remains offshore, forecasters warned it could intensify rainfall, surf and rip-current hazards from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic during the busy Independence Day travel period. European ensemble guidance now puts the likelihood of at least depression-level formation at roughly 60–70 %, though wind shear may cap further strengthening. A separate threat looms over the Northeast, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a severe-thunderstorm watch for Maine and New Hampshire until 6 p.m. Eastern and placed a broader swath of the region under a Level 2 “Slight” risk. Damaging wind gusts, one-inch hail and isolated flash flooding are possible as a cold front pushes through Thursday afternoon and evening. The same front will usher in drier, more comfortable air for July 4, setting the stage for largely favorable fireworks conditions from Boston to Washington. Farther west, the National Weather Service expects heat-index values in the upper 90s across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with scattered storms continuing in parts of the Plains and Rockies. Fire officials and physicians are urging caution with consumer fireworks during the holiday. Nearly 15,000 people were treated for fireworks-related injuries last year, including 11 fatalities, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reports, prompting reminders to observe local regulations, supervise children and keep water on hand.