Traders continue to assign an overwhelming likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease policy at its 24-25 September meeting, even after unexpectedly strong producer-price data dented some of the more aggressive wagers on a deeper move. Fed funds futures on 14 August implied roughly a 92%–96% chance that officials will trim the target range by a quarter-percentage point, down from the 100% probability priced the previous evening. The shift followed a hotter-than-forecast Producer Price Index reading, which showed headline wholesale inflation rising 3.3% from a year earlier and core prices climbing 3.7%, the fastest pace since March 2022. The data briefly knocked down short-term rate futures and erased market bets on a 50-basis-point cut that had crept as high as 11% earlier in the day, according to Kalshi and CME FedWatch figures. Expectations for a September move had surged after an in-line consumer-price report on 13 August, prompting some traders to place about $2 million in SOFR-linked options that would profit from a half-point reduction. While those positions have lost momentum, pricing continues to indicate only a slim chance that the central bank will leave rates unchanged next month, keeping the baseline outlook for a quarter-point cut intact.