Traders enter Fed week betting overwhelmingly that Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at Wednesday’s policy meeting, while looking to Friday’s employment data for clues on when easing could begin. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both assign about a 95% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold its target range, broadly echoed by CME FedWatch, which puts the odds of a cut at just 2.6%. Options pricing suggests less than a 3% chance of an immediate move, though contracts indicate roughly a 60% likelihood of a first reduction in September and two cuts by January. Attention now turns to the June non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect hiring to soften, with several analysts flagging a gain of about 110,000 jobs as a level that could allow Powell to fend off pressure for a July cut; a materially weaker reading would likely revive speculation that the Fed will move sooner.