Trading on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, shows Democratic Socialist assembly member Zohran Mamdani with an 80% implied probability of winning New York City’s 2025 mayoral election, far outpacing former governor Andrew Cuomo at 11% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 8%. Conservative radio host Curtis Sliwa stands at 2%, while former federal prosecutor Jim Walden registers below 1%. Commentators note that the crowded field of moderate and centrist contenders is splintering the anti-Mamdani vote, echoing historical elections in which divided opposition enabled a plurality victor. Critics of the 33-year-old candidate—whose platform includes city-owned grocery stores, expanded rent control and a $30 minimum wage—have begun warning of “socialist policies” they say could accelerate the city’s out-migration and strain its tax base. With formal party primaries still months away, the trading data suggest Mamdani has consolidated progressive support while his rivals debate whether any one of them should exit the race to prevent a repeat of 1970 Chile-style vote splitting.