Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo would defeat Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani by 15 percentage points if the New York City mayoral election were held today, according to a HarrisX survey of 585 registered voters conducted online 7–8 July. Cuomo captures 50% support in a head-to-head matchup, while the Democratic nominee garners 35%, with a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points. The poll highlights a fluid multi-candidate field. In a four-way contest that also includes Republican Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, Mamdani leads with 26%, followed closely by Cuomo at 23% and Sliwa at 22%; Adams trails at 13%. Removing Adams from the ballot gives Cuomo a narrow 31%–29% edge over Mamdani, while excluding Cuomo delivers Mamdani a 10-point advantage over Sliwa. HarrisX analysts say the results underscore Cuomo’s strength with moderate voters and Mamdani’s reliance on the progressive base. The survey was completed before Cuomo formally announced an independent bid, suggesting the race could tighten further as candidates finalise their lines-up for the November general election.