Data firm Opta’s pre-season model, based on 10,000 simulations, puts Liverpool in pole position to retain the Premier League crown when the 2025-26 campaign kicks off on 16 August. The analysis gives Arne Slot’s side a 28.5% chance of finishing first, ahead of Arsenal on 24.3%. Manchester City, recovering from an injury to Rodri, remain a strong contender for the Champions League places with a 62.0% likelihood of ending in the top four, while Chelsea are calculated at 40.4%. The same projections cast a bleak outlook for Manchester United. Despite more than £200 million spent on forwards Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko, United are forecast to finish 12th, with just a 0.6% shot at the title and an 11.1% probability of relegation—higher than their chance of making the top four (6.7%). Fan expectations broadly mirror the computer’s findings. A YouGov poll shows 75% of Liverpool followers believe their club will win the league, compared with 59% of Manchester City and 55% of Arsenal supporters. Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa fans are more focused on securing Champions League qualification, while only a third of United fans cite that as their main hope.