A Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points in December 2024, bringing it to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to 94 out of 106 economists surveyed. The poll's median forecast also projects the rate to be at 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025, a slight adjustment from the October forecast of 3.00%-3.25%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing expectations of significant rate cuts, with money markets pricing in a 35% to 45% chance of a 50 basis points cut in December 2024, influenced by recent PMI data. Traders are also anticipating around 150 basis points of ECB rate cuts in 2025, the first such prediction since October. The Euro has weakened against the US Dollar, falling to its lowest level since December 2022, with the EUR/USD exchange rate dropping below 1.04. The US Dollar Index has risen to its highest since November 2022, reaching 107.72 after the Euro Zone PMI data weakened the Euro.
⚠️BREAKING: *EURO FALLS TO 2-YEAR LOW ON SOFT PMI DATA $EUR $USD 🇪🇺🇪🇺 https://t.co/ElZCfHDVzf
ECB cut ✂️ for December being priced at 50 bps by traders (>50% probability)
UK RATE FUTURES POINT TO 77BPS OF BOE RATE CUTS BY END OF 2025 VS 72 BPS BEFORE WEAKER THAN-EXPECTED PMI DATA