U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the federal government could collect “substantially more than” $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, adding that August and September receipts will be a key test of the projection. He noted that every $300 billion represents about 1 % of gross domestic product and could help trim the budget deficit, which he said could move toward a 5 %-of-GDP range if current inflows persist. The upbeat forecast follows a record haul in July, when tariff collections reached about $29.6 billion, according to preliminary Treasury data. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget separately put monthly revenue at roughly $25 billion, a sharp increase from the $7 billion recorded a year earlier. The bipartisan watchdog estimates the levies could generate around $1.3 trillion over President Donald Trump’s current term if they remain in place. Higher receipts reflect a series of tariff increases, including the 145 % duty on Chinese imports that took effect on 9 April 2025. Market participants on trading platform Kalshi now price full-year collections at about $351 billion. While analysts caution that slower growth and higher inflation could erode some fiscal gains, Bessent said he may soon have to raise his official estimate given the pace of recent inflows.