Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 policy meeting, published Wednesday, show officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth straight gathering while acknowledging growing disagreement over when to resume easing. "Most" policymakers judged that “some reduction” in the policy rate would be appropriate later this year, and projections indicate 10 of the 19 participants expect at least two cuts before December. A couple of members said they could support a move as soon as the July 29–30 meeting if data permit, whereas seven saw no need for cuts at all in 2025. Several officials noted the current rate may sit only slightly above its neutral level. The divide centres on the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s trade measures. Most participants warned the new 145% tariff on Chinese goods and other duties could exert persistent upward pressure on prices, though a few viewed the effect as a one-off adjustment. While the group agreed risks to both higher inflation and a weaker labour market have eased since spring, they stressed that uncertainty around trade, fiscal policy and geopolitics remains high. With growth expected to slow and labour conditions to soften gradually, the committee concluded that its moderately restrictive stance affords it time to await clearer economic signals. Futures pricing continues to imply quarter-point rate cuts in September and December.
在上个月的政策会议上,大多数美联储官员预计,他们今年将能够恢复降息,但其中只有两人表示支持最早在本月晚些时候的该央行下一次会议上降息。6月17-18日政策会议的纪要揭示了联邦公开市场委员会内部新出现的分歧。https://t.co/SAV98A3Ll5
#NewsFatafat | Most U.S. Fed officials see rate cuts on the horizon — but just how many, and how soon, remains uncertain Minutes from the June meeting reveal policymakers are split between tackling stubborn inflation, partly fueled by Trump’s tariffs, and signs of a cooling https://t.co/ucwtE73UjM
Trump’s tariff hikes fuelling debate at the Fed on interest rate cut timing https://t.co/u40uK9oLKs