Goldman Sachs says the 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods that took effect in April is beginning to filter through to domestic prices, although the burden is being shared differently than in the 2018–19 trade war. In a research note dated 10 Aug 2025, the bank finds that import prices on tariffed goods have "declined somewhat," indicating foreign exporters are lowering their export prices to remain competitive. Even with that partial adjustment, Goldman estimates the tariffs have already added 0.2 percentage point to the core personal-consumption-expenditures price index through June. The firm expects the levies to contribute a further 0.66 percentage point over the remainder of the year, lifting core PCE inflation to about 3.2% by December—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The analysis shows that, through June, U.S. companies absorbed 64% of the tariff costs, consumers 22% and foreign exporters 14%. Goldman projects consumers’ share could climb to roughly two-thirds by the fall as businesses pass on more of the costs, implying broader price pressures ahead.