Speculative positioning in global FX markets is now very short the US Dollar. What's notable is that past episodes of stretched Dollar short positioning were heavily skewed towards Euro longs (blue). Not the case now. Markets understand there's not much to cheer about in the EU. https://t.co/G5aWkYTDXP
How a US dollar crisis would unfold The US dollar is meant to be a source of safety. Lately, however, it has been a cause of fear. https://t.co/rkUWuYIZXL via @TheEconomist https://t.co/xVcrxe5vrQ
The US was everyone's favorite investment for a while. As the "exceptionalism" bubble bursts, there's now a positioning overhang and associated outflows (and $ weakness). Today's substack finds that this overhang was small & has likely been fully run down. https://t.co/gX13MixxP3 https://t.co/8Xs44YSaQW
Recent actions by former President Donald Trump, including attacks on the Federal Reserve and the implementation of unpredictable tariffs, are contributing to a decline in confidence in the US dollar. Historically, the US dollar has enjoyed an "exorbitant privilege" as the primary global reserve currency, supported by the perception of American exceptionalism and the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset during crises. However, this perception is weakening, leading to shifts in global market behavior. Investors are moving away from the US dollar, with speculative positioning in foreign exchange markets showing a notable short stance on the dollar. Unlike previous episodes where dollar short positions were offset by euro longs, current market dynamics reflect skepticism about both the US and the EU economies. These developments raise questions about the future stability of the US dollar and the potential emergence of alternative reserve currencies.