The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday slashed previously reported non-farm payroll gains for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, revising May’s increase to 19,000 from 144,000 and June’s to 14,000 from 147,000. Goldman Sachs said the downgrade is the biggest two-month adjustment outside of recessions since 1968 and the second-largest in at least 45 years. The surprise revision drove Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar sharply lower, though some strategists expect those moves to unwind as investors conclude the changes largely correct an earlier statistical anomaly in state and local government hiring and align the official data with private-sector gauges such as ADP. Political tensions quickly followed. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told multiple television networks that the payroll figures are “misleading America” and warned that “you can’t run an economy on broken data.” He called for a “fresh set of eyes” at the BLS to make the numbers more transparent and reliable, comments critics saw as a signal that the administration may seek to replace the agency’s leadership. Economists note that payroll estimates are regularly revised amid falling survey response rates and emphasise that the unemployment rate remains at a historically low 4.2%. The BLS will publish a preliminary benchmark revision to March 2025 payrolls on 9 September; private forecasts point to an additional reduction of roughly 550,000-950,000 positions. The debate over data quality and policy implications is set to intensify ahead of that release.
Hassett is being willfully wrong here. The ADP job reports for May and June were very weak - 37,000 jobs created in May, and 33,000 jobs lost in June. The BLS revisions for those two months are squarely in line with the ADP numbers. There's nothing "mysterious" about them. https://t.co/TfFwSFzHTH
Goldman Sachs notes that the recent 2 month job revisions were the largest outside recessionary times since … 1968. Goldman expects more large revisions next month. https://t.co/AucHHXa66k
Kevin Hassett on NBC: “What we need is a fresh set of eyes over the BLS… The president wants his own people there so that when we see the numbers, they’re more transparent and more reliable.”