Prediction platform Polymarket on Friday priced a 40% chance that Russia and Ukraine will agree a cease-fire in 2025, up from earlier levels, as traders positioned ahead of a bilateral meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage later in the day. The platform, which lets users buy and sell shares tied to real-world events, has also opened short-dated markets on the leaders’ joint news conference. Odds stand at 88% that Trump will mention Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 76% that he will say “Russia” or “Ukraine” at least 15 times, and 73% that he will reference a cease-fire three or more times. By contrast, the probability that he utters the word “crypto” or “Bitcoin” is just 3%, according to a CryptoSlate tally of the data. In a longer-horizon wager, Polymarket launched a contract on whether Washington and Moscow will clinch a nuclear-arms agreement before year-end, underscoring heightened interest in the potential diplomatic fallout from the Alaska summit. Market prices move continuously as users trade shares, offering a real-time gauge of crowd sentiment on geopolitical risks.