Coffee prices in Brazil have experienced a sharp increase over the past year, with Arabica coffee prices rising by around 81-82% to record highs, significantly impacting household budgets and reducing coffee purchases by 16%. The surge in prices was driven by concerns over climate risks and tight global supplies. However, recent developments indicate a shift: dry weather in Brazil has accelerated the coffee harvest, leading to a decline in prices to their lowest levels in seven months. This price drop is expected to provide some relief to producers, although analysts advise caution due to the combination of high production costs and elevated interest rates for the 2025/26 harvest season. The world's largest coffee trader forecasts a rebound in Brazil's coffee output next year, which could ease global supply constraints. Meanwhile, the record prices during the current harvest season have also triggered an increase in criminal activity related to coffee in Brazil. Additionally, the broader food market in São Paulo saw its first monthly price decline in ten months in June, mainly due to improved supply of fresh produce and meats.