President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues to lead the early race for Brazil’s 2026 presidential contest, but his advantage narrows sharply in a head-to-head with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, the latest Genial/Quaest survey shows. In first-round simulations the poll puts Lula at 32% of voting intentions, ahead of former president Jair Bolsonaro on 26%, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro on 19% and Tarcísio on 15%. Second-round scenarios point to a 41%-37% technical tie between Lula and Tarcísio, within the survey’s two-percentage-point margin of error. Lula would defeat the still-inelegible Jair Bolsonaro by 43%-37% and prevail over Michelle Bolsonaro by 43%-36%. Despite the favourable numbers, 58% of respondents say Lula should not run for a fourth term, while 62% believe Bolsonaro ought to relinquish his own candidacy and endorse another name on the right. The poll interviewed 2,004 Brazilians face-to-face between 10 and 14 July; results carry a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of two percentage points.