Brazil’s Instituto Paraná Pesquisas reports that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding advantage in early testing for the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race. In three stimulated first-round scenarios the Republican-aligned incumbent scores between 44.6% and 47.3% of voter intentions, more than twice the support of his strongest challenger, Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin, who registers 20.6%. When Alckmin is replaced by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad or Entrepreneurship Minister Márcio França, Tarcísio still leads by at least 29 percentage points. The survey, conducted face-to-face with 1,680 voters across 84–85 municipalities from 4–8 July, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Separately, 67.4% of respondents approve of Tarcísio’s administration, while 28.5% express disapproval, underpinning his strong electoral position. Paraná Pesquisas also mapped the emerging contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats in 2026. Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro leads the first stimulated scenario with 36.7% of votes, followed by Haddad at 32.8% and Public Security Secretary Guilherme Derrite at 22.9%. In a second scenario that swaps Haddad for Alckmin, Bolsonaro holds 36.4% and the vice-president closes to 35.4%, within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a tight race for the upper house.