Recent polling data from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel highlight a competitive landscape for Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Datafolha's June 2025 survey shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first-round vote with 36%, narrowly ahead of Jair Bolsonaro at 35%, but tied with Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas in second-round matchups. Lula also leads against Michelle Bolsonaro in some scenarios. However, Paraná Pesquisas reports that Lula would lose to Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Tarcísio de Freitas in second-round contests, winning only against Eduardo Bolsonaro. Similarly, AtlasIntel's July 2025 data indicates Lula ties with Bolsonaro, Tarcísio, and Michelle while defeating other candidates. In São Paulo's gubernatorial race, Tarcísio de Freitas holds a strong lead with 44.6% to 47.3% in first-round scenarios, consistently outperforming candidates aligned with Lula's government. For the Senate race in São Paulo, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Fernando Haddad, and Geraldo Alckmin are leading contenders. Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the Liberal Party (PL), has publicly stated that Michelle Bolsonaro is the only candidate besides Jair Bolsonaro who could defeat Lula in the 2026 runoff. Overall, the polls reflect a fragmented electorate with Lula maintaining a slight edge in the first round but facing challenges in head-to-head second-round matchups against right-wing candidates.