According to a July 2025 survey by Paraná Pesquisas, Tarcísio de Freitas is the frontrunner in the race for the governorship of São Paulo for the 2026 election. The current governor holds between 44.6% and 47.3% of the voting intentions in various first-round scenarios tested by the poll. Tarcísio is reported to have a broad lead and would defeat all candidates from President Lula's Workers' Party (PT) in hypothetical matchups. In the concurrent Senate race for São Paulo, Eduardo Bolsonaro, former mayor Fernando Haddad, and former governor Geraldo Alckmin are identified as the leading candidates. Eduardo Bolsonaro is noted as the favorite in the Senate contest, consistently leading in multiple polls. These findings have been reported by several Brazilian news outlets including CNN Brasil, Band Jornalismo, VEJA, CartaCapital, and Exame, all referencing the Paraná Pesquisas data.