Traders now anticipate only two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first 25 basis point reduction expected in September and a second in December. Swaps markets price in around 55-56 basis points of easing by year-end, down from 75 basis points last week and 110 basis points in mid-April. The current Federal Funds Rate stands at 4.375%. The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting has dropped to 8%, compared to 17% before the US-China deal and 78% a month ago. Odds for a July cut have also declined to 40% from 60% last week and 93% in April. Goldman Sachs now expects only one Fed rate cut in 2025, down from three, and has lowered its 12-month US recession probability to 35% from 45%. The S&P 500 index's 2025 year-end target was raised to 6,100 from 5,900. The European Central Bank is forecast to cut rates two more times in 2025, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the deposit rate to fall below 2% by year-end. Money markets are pricing in less than 50 basis points of ECB cuts, with a year-end deposit rate of 1.75%. Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to reach a terminal rate of 1.75% in July, compared to a prior forecast of 1.5% in September. An ECB rate cut is expected in June, with another in the second half of the year. In Brazil, the Central Bank's Focus report shows the 2025 IPCA inflation forecast lowered from 5.53% to 5.51%, and the 2026 forecast reduced to 4.50%. The Selic rate is projected to remain at 14.75% through the end of 2025 and at 12.50% in 2026. GDP growth is expected to be 2.0% in 2025 and 1.70% in 2026. The 2025 year-end exchange rate forecast for the Brazilian real was revised to 5.85 per US dollar, with a 2026 forecast of 5.90.