Support for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government remains buoyant two months after its re-election, according to a string of new opinion surveys. A Research Co. poll conducted 30 June-2 July shows the Liberals at 47% of decided voters, 10 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives on 37%. The New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois trail at 6% each, while the Greens register 2% and the People’s Party 1%. Abacus Data’s separate reading of overall government performance finds 52% of respondents approving of the federal administration against 25% who disapprove. Seat-projection modelling by 338Canada, updated 5 July, translates the latest trends into 189 seats for the Liberals—20 more than they secured in April’s election—versus 128 for the Conservatives, down 16. The Bloc is projected at 18 seats, the NDP at six and the Greens at two. Carney’s personal standing is also solid: Research Co. places his net approval at +29 percentage points, far outstripping Poilievre’s –4. Asked to name the country’s most pressing issue, 22% cite Canada-U.S. relations, ahead of the economy and jobs at 21% and housing at 18%, suggesting cross-border trade tensions remain central to voter concerns as the government begins its new mandate.
Trump Approval is at 50% today, up a point from last week: https://t.co/K0PyR8w0EM #TRUMPAPPROVAL https://t.co/4cazSCVuMb
Most Important Issue: Canada-US Relations: 22% Economy/Jobs: 21% Housing/Poverty: 18% Healthcare: 13% Immigration: 9% Environment: 3% Crime/Safety: 3% Accountability/Leadership: 2% Research Co. / July 2, 2025 / n=1001 / Online
Net-Approval Polling: Carney: +29% Blanchet (QC): +1% Poilievre: -4% May: -8% Davies: -14% Bernier: -33% Research Co. / July 2, 2025 / n=1001 / Online