Former OpenAI Researcher Predicts AGI by 2027 Amid Bidding War Concerns

Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner has released a 165-page paper exploring the rapid advancements in AI capabilities and the potential path toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2027. Aschenbrenner, who was a member of the OpenAI Superalignment team, argues that achieving AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible based on current trends. His essay has sparked a debate, with some experts agreeing with his conclusions while others, such as AlphaSignalAI, argue that the prediction is full of misconceptions and overestimations. On the Dwarkesh podcast, Aschenbrenner mentioned that OpenAI leadership had discussed starting a bidding war to fund and sell AGI between the US, Russian, and Chinese governments. The discussion highlights the differing perspectives on the feasibility of AGI within the next few years.