Jefferies Shares 2Q25 Thoughts on $AAPL and Xiaomi Analyst comments: "Counterpoint and IDC reported 2Q25 global smartphone shipment growth of 2% and 1%, respectively, versus Jefferies' forecast of flat growth. For Apple ($AAPL), both sources estimate 2Q shipments at 46–47
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China’s smartphone market contracted in the second quarter for the first time in seven quarters, with shipments falling 4% from a year earlier to roughly 69 million units, according to preliminary data from research firm IDC. Huawei Technologies Co. moved back to the top of the domestic rankings for the first time in more than four years. The Shenzhen-based vendor shipped about 12.5 million handsets, giving it an 18.1% share and edging past Apple Inc.’s 13.9% share. Vivo, Oppo and other local brands trailed after steep year-on-year declines. Huawei’s resurgence follows a string of launches that feature in-house chips and its HarmonyOS software, helping the company overcome continuing U.S. export restrictions. The stronger showing also came as government-funded trade-in subsidies, which had buoyed demand earlier in the year, began to lose momentum, IDC said. Globally, smartphone shipments in the quarter rose 1% to 295.2 million units, with Samsung retaining the No. 1 position ahead of Apple and Xiaomi. IDC cautioned that weak consumer confidence and an uncertain economic outlook are likely to keep a lid on any sustained rebound in handset demand.