The Federal Reserve is facing significant financial challenges as it runs losses at a rate of nearly $2 billion per week, leading to a cumulative 'deferred asset' of negative $188 billion. This situation contrasts with previous years when the Fed transferred approximately $100 billion annually to the US Treasury. The ongoing financial strain is prompting discussions about potential interest rate cuts. Analysts, including Chris Turner from ING Economics, anticipate an 'orderly dollar decline' should the Fed proceed with rate cuts. The potential rate cuts are seen as a response to fiscal dominance and instability rather than purely economic stimulus or inflation concerns. If rates remain unchanged, Treasury interest expenditure could rise to $1.6 trillion by the end of 2025, up from $600 billion at the end of 2023. Additionally, the Dollar Index (DXY) is projected to decline to 92.
🇺🇸 'An orderly dollar decline'. That's what our Chris Turner is expecting once the Fed cuts rates. Watch this. $EUR https://t.co/z2p8tyXJ37
🇺🇸 'An orderly dollar decline'. That's what our Chris Turner is expecting once the Fed cuts rates. Watch this. $EUR https://t.co/z2p8tyXJ37
If the Fed doesn't cut rates, we will see cumulative Treasury interest expenditure hiting $1.6T by year end 2025 from $600B year end 2023. Rate cuts are less a reflection of falling inflation or need for economic stimulus as the impact of fiscal dominance and instability. $SA https://t.co/fZnGI3mw8y