Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 29–30 policy meeting, published on 20 August, show almost all Federal Open Market Committee participants backed leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive gathering. The decision passed 9–2, with Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller favoring a quarter-percentage-point cut; Governor Adriana Kugler did not vote because of an absence. Most officials judged it prudent to pause while “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.” The record notes that economic activity moderated in the first half of 2025 and that recent payroll revisions underscored softer labour-market momentum. Even so, the majority viewed upside inflation risks—exacerbated by higher U.S. import tariffs—as a bigger threat than a potential rise in unemployment. Several policymakers said the current policy rate may sit only slightly above its neutral level, but they also indicated it would be difficult to justify a 50-basis-point reduction at the September meeting. The discussion included no proposals to alter the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff. Analysts said the tone of the minutes reduces the likelihood of an early rate cut and challenges market bets on swift easing.