The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range at its July 30 meeting, according to a consensus of 105 economists surveyed. All economists agree on no rate change at this meeting, with market tools such as Kalshi and the CME Group's FedWatch tool assigning around a 97% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold rates steady. Looking ahead, 56 of the 105 economists anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with about two-thirds expecting one or two cuts by the end of 2025. However, futures pricing and market sentiment show some skepticism about the likelihood of two cuts this year. The key focus for market participants will be the forward guidance provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the meeting, which may offer insights into the timing of future rate adjustments. The possibility of a rate cut at the September meeting is being closely watched, with some speculation whether the Fed will signal this move at the July meeting or wait until the Jackson Hole symposium in August. Concerns about the Fed’s independence amid rising political pressure were noted by 36 of 50 economists surveyed, but this has not altered the expectation for no immediate rate change.