Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a New York speech late Thursday that he will vote for a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 29-30 meeting, arguing the economy’s momentum has weakened and the central bank should move before the labor market deteriorates further. Waller cited real GDP growth of roughly 1% in the first half of 2025, private-sector payroll gains that he estimates are close to zero after likely data revisions, and an unemployment rate of 4.1% that masks underlying softness. Stripping out the effect of the new U.S. tariffs, he believes underlying inflation is already near the Fed’s 2% target. With the target federal-funds range at 4.25%–4.50%—about 125 to 150 basis points above the 3% level he views as neutral—Waller said a July cut would begin moving policy toward neutral and could be followed by additional quarter-point reductions if growth remains tepid and inflation subdued. Delaying action, he warned, risks forcing the central bank into sharper easing later. Waller’s stance, shared publicly just before the Fed’s pre-meeting quiet period, sets him apart from most of his colleagues, who have signaled a preference to wait. Along with Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, he is among the few officials calling for an immediate move, highlighting an emerging divide within the central bank over how quickly to respond to slowing economic activity and the one-off price effects of tariffs.