
In the week ending April 15, 2025, the U.S. dollar experienced broad weakness, with notable appreciation in currencies such as the Mexican peso, British pound, and New Zealand dollar. The Mexican peso led gains against the dollar with a 3.027% return, while the Chinese yuan (CNH) was the weakest, declining by 0.316%. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and leveraged accounts have increased short positions against the dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) net short at -2.99%, reflecting a crowded bearish stance. This positioning includes record-high long positions in the Japanese yen, which is considered the primary focus of dollar bearish sentiment. Euro positions shifted from slightly short to substantially long despite ongoing Eurozone challenges. Hedge funds have shown the largest buying activity in agricultural futures since October, acquiring approximately 132,000 contracts valued at $4.6 billion, driven by factors such as the rollback of tariffs by former President Trump, bullish USDA reports, and an improved macroeconomic environment characterized by rising equity and crude oil prices alongside a declining dollar. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rose by 4% during the same period, with hedge funds primarily reducing short positions in metals rather than initiating new long positions. U.S. weather conditions have been wet, benefiting hard red winter wheat production but delaying corn and soybean planting, contributing to volatility in soybean futures amid uncertain planting conditions, global demand, and tariff concerns. Overall, the market sentiment remains strongly negative on the dollar, with potential risks for a sharp dollar rebound if the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance or if macroeconomic shocks occur.










COT on commodities covering the week to 15 April, when broad gains lifted the BCOM index by 4%, showed a lukewarm buying response from hedge funds, most notably in metals, where traders primarily focused on reducing short positions instead of adding fresh long positions—not least https://t.co/HRF6KnG6sw
COT on #forex covering the week to 15 April when the Dollar Index slumped 2.7%, saw a second week of aggressive #USD selling, doubling the gross short versus eight IMM futures to a six-month high at $10.2 bn. Main drivers were another record high in the JPY long to 172k contracts https://t.co/TgGv4ObpSF
🌽 #Ags this week: The U.S. dollar is at three-year lows, and Crude Oil rallied +4.9% last week, supporting #ag markets. 🛢️ U.S. weather is wet, which helps HRW production but slows Corn and Soybean planting. #Seasonals are bullish for Grains and Oilseeds, bearish for Softs. 🚜 https://t.co/JbPaEcCSPo